Archive for » 2011 «

Accelerating Chinese investment in Afghanistan is focusing attention on the question of China’s future role in that country.

This week a Chinese company won the right to develop certain Afghan oilfields. This is not the first Chinese resource play in Afghanistan, nor will it be the last.

The common perception has been that while investing vigorously, China will not engage politically or militarily in Afghanistan, for fear of stirring separatist sentiments in the volatile Xinjiang region bordering Afghanistan, among other reasons.

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REKO Diq, a world-class copper and gold mine in district Chagai of Balochistan estimated at a value of between $250bn to $500bn, is a commercially mouth-watering prospect for international mining giants.

American, Chinese, Australian, Chilean and Canadian firms have been in the race for wining a mining lease contract for the Reko Diq project. Will international interest in Balochistan’s huge copper deposits push the province to an era of copper politics? Chagai has huge copper-gold deposits at Saindak and Reko Diq. Will it be the next Chile that witnessed an era of copper politics under socialist president Salvador Allende?

Copper politics involves corporate greed and shenanigans to activate state actors in tug-of war games. There are indications that copper politics is brewing in Balochistan. Chagai is poised to appear soon on the world’s copper-producing map after it first attracted the world’s attention in May 1998 when Pakistan conducted nuclear tests.

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KARACHI – Pakistan’s trade deficit – the gap between exports and imports – widened by 55.5% last month compared with a year earlier, putting further pressure on the government is it seeks to pay back loans to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) secured during its earlier 2008 debt crisis.

The trade gap widened to US$2.17 billion in November, as exports fell to $1.55 billion from $1.72 billion a year earlier – and down 18.2% from the previous month – while imports grew to $3.72 billion from $3.12 billion. The deficit was $1.71 billion in October, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS). For the first five months (July-November) of current fiscal year, it widened 36% to $9.06 billion from $6.6 billion in the same period last year.

Increased foreign inflows from home remittances failed to contain the current account deficit, which widened to $1.55 billion during the July-October period from $541 million a year earlier.
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THE latest developments on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline projects are such that it may shape into an either-or situation.

While work on the IP pipeline is expected to be completed ahead of schedule, the United States-backed TAPI project has also been expedited. Pipeline politics appear to have come into play. At the moment, the US is in favour of TAPI, Russia and China for IP, India is in a ‘wait and see’ mode and Pakistan seems to be running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.

Pakistan and Turkmenistan recently reached a deal on a gas sale-purchase price for the $7.6bn TAPI pipeline project, scheduled to be completed by 2016. Under the deal, Turkmenistan will deliver 1.3 billion cubic feet a day of gas at 69 per cent of the crude oil parity price, which is much lower than the gas rate of 78 per cent of crude price Islamabad agreed to with Tehran under the IP gas pipeline deal.

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KARACHI – The government of Pakistan’s Balochistan province has rejected an application by Tethyan Copper Company (TCC) to mine for copper and gold at the multi-billion dollar Reko Diq project after a committee formed to examine the company’s feasibility report said it was incomplete. The mine and related works has the potential to be biggest foreign-financed project in the country’s history.

TCC, a joint venture between Antofagasta of Chile and Canada’s Barrick Gold Corp, submitted its feasibility report in February. The Balochistan Mining Committee (BMC), which rejected the report, is headed by the director general of the Mines and Mineral Department in Balochistan. TCC recently filed a “notice of dispute” with the provincial government, which had refused to meet its executives or extend a deadline for it to respond to objections raised over the lease.

The rejection may clear the way for Chinese companies to secure a lease for Reko Diq, whose gross value could be as high as US$250 billion. Any such involvement could be delayed if TCC follows through on a suggestion that it might take the matter to the International Court of Arbitration.
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